On this page you will find my tests and comments on the Census Data
compared with
other information which is available, and follows my tests on the
of the Census Data and the report of 1856, and recorded on my internal
consistency
page. You may usefully read that before reading this page
EXTERNAL CONSISTENCY
The Census Data not only has internal inconsistencies, but also conflicts
with:
* successive history books, such as "The Great Hunger"
* Contemporary accounts
For consistency, I will use "The Great Hunger" [TGH] as a reference,
and make specific reference where
other material is used.
A. Total Population
"And assuming that emigration was equal to the immigration" - this from
the 1851 Census Report and commenting on a time of the greatest exodus
from Ireland that ever occurred.
Alan Gailey,"Rural Housing in Ulster in the Mid-Nineteenth Century"
part 'B' "Facts from Gweedore -comments on Memorial of Patrick McKye, schoolteacher
in 1837 i. .. There is (sic) about 4000 persons in this parish" comments
that " This is an error: the population in 1841 was 9,049" ISBN 0
337 23127 3
[TGH] : Ch 1: p31: "An intelligent relief officer wrote that the Census
of 1841 was 'pronounced universally to be no fair criterion of the present
population'. He had it tested in Co Clare and found the population
to be one third greater than had been recorded;" Captain Wynne
I.O. Clare, to Secy. Public Works, December 5, 1846.
CSO Registerd Papers SPO Dublin, 1391
Commons Papers 1847, Vol 14, on Captain Wynne's letters 26th November
1846, regarding the impartiality of relief committees:
"It appears, indeed, from the evidence of Captain Wynne himself, that
both the letters above referred to were written in the hurry and excitement
of much business; that they conveyed a meaning much wider than he intended,
and that if time had permitted, or if he had supposed that they would be
published as formal and official documents, he would have written in a
more careful and guarded manner" - March, 1947. Captain Wynne's evidence
shows that he "sold out" of the army and was first employed by the Government
in Co Clare on 28th October, 1846.
Commons Papers: Census report for 1841, published 1843? : comments that the 1841 figures were of an improved accuracy from what had gone before. The census takers were mainly the Royal Irish Constabulary, and that the previous census takers were paid on the number of forms returned. The returns were subject to checks and balances, though what these were is not stated.
There are two issues here: the accuracy of the overall totals, and how
accurately the figures model the state of the population.
The accuracy of the overall totals is questioned elsewhere, and I will
not trouble the reader with the mathematical distortions necessary to create
the illusion of a "Holocaust". It is clear from the quotations above that
Captain Wynne was dealing with an extraordinary situation, and assessed
the population about five weeks after arriving in Co Clare. It seems, from
the text quoted above, that Captain Wynne's letter of December 5, 1846,
was written " in the hurry and excitement of much business," and that he
was incorrect in stating that the "pronouncement" was "universal",
Therefore, not only is there doubt regarding the accuracy of Captain
Wynne's statement, it is not clear whether the statement applies to some
locations within Co Clare, to Co Clare in its entirety, or to all of Ireland.
The importance of his statement lies not in its overall view of the size
of Ireland's population in 1841 or 1851 (assuming the statement was meant
to apply to all of Ireland,) but more in its implication for other statistics,
especially rates of birth. However, there appears to be no confirmation
from other sources, no indication of the size of population sampled, and
no statement on the methods used. Without these, no objective assessment
of the truth of the matter can be made.
[THG] Ch 1 p31: "therefore in 1845 when famine came the population might
well have been above nine millions."
This appears to be a subjective assessment based on the above text
and the writer's assessment of population change.
I have no _evidence_ that the population in Ireland in 1845 was above
8.2 millions, and no _evidence_ that Ireland's population distributions
were anything other than those shown in the Census data. There is, therefore,
little point in speculating what population changes might have taken place,
other than to say that errors of less than +/- ten percent in gross populations
will have little impact on any conclusions drawn.
B. Births
[TGH] Ch 1 p30 "Girls married at sixteen, boys at seventeen or eighteen,
and Irishwomen were exceptionally fertile;'... for twelve years 19 in 20
of them breed every second year"
[TGH} Ch1 p31 "For this closely packed and rapidly increasing people"
The Census Data of 1841 indicates that births were barely able to keep
up with deaths, emigration, and migration, and the population profile given
by the 1841 data indicates that fertility was falling, and had fallen since
1835.
C. Deaths
[TGH] Ch1 p31: "They were warm, they were abundantly fed - as long as
the potato did not fail"
Illustrated London News , 3 April 1852: " it has consigned upwards of
one million of human beings - some accounts say upwards of two millions-
to a premature death by famine and fever."
This account may have an echo in the later [1856] Census Report, however,
the census data does not support that statement. It records : "mortality
for the last five years of the decennial period upon which it is our duty
to report was as great as 985,366, or very nearly one million." and
"But no pen has recorded the numbers of the forlorn and starving who perished
by the wayside or in ditches".
[TGH] "Between 1845 and 1851 at least one million people died from starvation or famine-related diseases"
There is no way that the numbers recorded [ over 20,000 persons] as
dying from starvation can be reconciled with the above statements. There
are reports of large numbers of people dying from disease, but there are
few reports of death by starvation. The figure of 985,366 inlcludes death
by natural causes, though natural causes in those days came close to famine
related diseases. The Illustrated London News report allows us to view
the famine in Ireland through English eyes, however, the lack of a reference
guiding us to "some accounts" makes the report worthless in the pursuit
of verifiable facts.
D. Emigration and Migration
"and a further one million people emigrated."
[TGH] Ch12, p239, " No disaster comparable to Grosse Isle occurred
in the United States"